Fact-Checking Classic Trading Claims Against 3,946 Days of Data
We tested trading claims against 3,946 days of S&P 500 E-mini futures data.
A model is evaluated not on the data it was fitted to, but by splitting it by calendar year. Tests conducted on 3,946 S&P 500 E-mini futures sessions reveal that many claims made in trading courses are often overstated. Measured rates frequently fall below the confident probabilities quoted in educational materials.
This synthesis was produced from its source by AI; there is no human editor or manual review step. How we work