Show HN: A Real-Data Simulator for a Strait of Hormuz Closure Scenario
An open interactive simulator models a Strait of Hormuz closure using real oil trade data and a network-based economic model.
A developer released an interactive simulator that models what would happen to global oil trade if the Strait of Hormuz were closed. The tool is calibrated on real UN Comtrade 2025 trade flows and built on a supply-chain network model from an arXiv paper, combining fluid-stochastic network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, and endogenous pricing with strategic trade rebalancing.
Users can adjust parameters such as retained capacity, demand and supply elasticity, and time horizon to observe resulting market price paths, downstream flow losses, and emergency stockpile drawdown. Alternative routing capacity, including pipeline bypasses like the East-West and Habshan-Fujairah lines, is factored into the capacity assumptions.
The project is explicitly framed as a stress test rather than a forecast: sanctioned or unreported trade is not represented, and no rationing policy is modeled, meaning buffers deplete mechanically. For engineers working on geopolitical risk analysis or supply-chain resilience, it's a concrete example of turning trade data into an interactive, parameterized disruption model.